Trade Analysis: Transpacific: cargo-partner

Main Ports: Far East to US West Coast

Main Ports: Far East to US East Coast

^{Source: Market average rates for 40‘ containers according to www.xeneta.com}

Trade Analysis: Transpacific

Situation

In August, rates continued to drop below long-term contracts due to overcapacity in the market. Shipping lines began to revamp their services and announced several blank sailings, which resulted in a balanced demand/supply situation by the end of August. Currently, several vessels and loops are full. Some carriers are optimistic about a possible rate increase in mid-September, while others are adopting a wait-and-see approach. Overall, we expect rates to remain stable in September and possibly increase slightly before the Golden Week holidays in China.

Obstacles

There are currently congestion issues at ports, with delays of 2-3 days in China and Singapore. The US administration has proposed a service fee for Chinese-owned, -operated, and -built vessels, which will result in additional costs for shipping lines. The implementation date is October 14, but carriers have not yet announced any additional costs related to this topic. However, we are beginning to see them reshuffle their services as they try to redirect the targeted vessels to other trades in order to avoid these additional costs.

Outlook

Carriers will continue to adjust the supply of vessel space in order to manage the minimum rate levels on this trade. We anticipate that they will attempt to pass on the newly imposed costs to end customers. Since the main shipping season on this trade has ended, we can only expect fresh orders to begin on a larger scale from mid- to late October.

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